With less than a week to go until the Mayweather-Marquez showdown, boxing fans worldwide have to be asking the same question that was asked when the fight was first announced months ago – Does Marquez have a legitimate chance against the de facto pound-for-pound king? It's a question that begs reflection because not only will Floyd have been away from the ring for nearly twenty-one months, but he will be facing a Mexican warrior who has proven that he knows and has what it takes to get the job done in big fights. In Marquez, Mayweather will arguably be tackling his toughest assignment since his second tangle with Jose Luis Castillo seven years ago. Make no mistake about it – this will be an interesting bout from a technical standpoint, maybe not as action-packed as the upcoming Cotto-Pacquiao scrap, but definitely more intriguing to fans with a keen eye for the finer aspects of in-fight strategy and adjustment. Few boxers of recent vintage make the types of necessary adjustments as seamlessly as Mayweather and Marquez, and even fewer have achieved their level of pugilistic proficiency. This is a fight that promises to deliver all of the tactical maneuvering of a chess match between two grandmasters, neither willing to tip his hand too early, or concede too much ground in the early stages. How it unfolds is left to the imagination, but the fact that this fight will deliver as promised is beyond question.
Analysis: Floyd Mayweather Jr. has been boxing's finest fighter for the better part of the past eight years, even more so than Roy Jones Jr. The measure of his greatness is evidenced by his unblemished record across five weight classes, having faced eight world champions over that span. Floyd's detractors point to the fights there were not made over the years, and rightfully so, but that line of attack only has validity above 135 lbs., not at or below. Mayweather faced a virtual “Who's Who' at 130 and 135 lbs., while his resume north of 135 lbs. has been spotty at best. The simple fact of the matter is that aside from the limited but colorful Ricky Hatton and a past-his-primes Oscar De La Hoya, potential opponents for Mayweather have been neither compelling nor lucrative at 140 and 147 lbs. Margarito? Baldomir held the lineal 147 lb. title at the time and provided nearly the same monetary compensation. Cotto? Promoter Top Rank didn't seem keen on the idea of Miguel facing Floyd while the Puerto Rican titlist was still in the process of building his national profile. Mosley? Shane thumbed his nose at the prospect of facing Floyd when he was the lightweight champion and Mayweather was the prominent 130 lb. fighter in the world, and again turned down the opportunity to sign for the fight several years ago, falsely assuming that the bout would be on the table at a later date. After cashing in with Hatton and Oscar, Floyd assumed the driver's seat in terms of when, where and for how much future mega-bouts would take place, a reality that is just now beginning to dawn on Mosley and Golden Boy Promotions.
So arguments regarding money and legacy aside, exactly what can we expect from the 2009 version of Floyd 'Money' Mayweather when he steps in against the reigning lineal lightweight champ, Juan Manuel Marquez? Speed? Though noted for his speed, Floyd is best-served by his maneuverability and cat-like reflexes more than pure speed, so any concerns of a significant drop-off in speed might be misplaced. Stamina? This has never been a concern for Mayweather, as he typically stays in excellent shape between fights, reports indicating that even during his recent “retirement”, his weight never ventured far above 160 lbs. Sharpness? This could be an issue over the first half of the bout, but as the rounds progress, and this fight figures to go the distance, Floyd should regain nearly all of his timing and fluidity, even against a master craftsman like Marquez. Looking ahead to “bigger fish to fry”? Though there has been a groundswell of demand for a showdown with Manny Pacquiao, it's doubtful Mayweather will overlook the highly-accomplished Marquez next weekend. Manny making it past Cotto is not a given, so it's highly unlikely that Team Mayweather is counting on a Pacquiao bout in early 2010 as being “etched in stone”, anyway.
What can be said about Marquez that's not already known? Everyone knows about his long and distinguished career and standing as one of Mexico's truly elite champions of any era. What most boxing fans don't realize is the fact that it can be credibly stated that he has yet to suffer a legitimate and clear-cut defeat in his career. His first defeat was a questionable disqualification that occurred in Mexico City in his very first professional bout. The decision loss to then IBF featherweight champion, Freddie Norwood on the De La Hoya-Trinidad undercard was widely-panned as the worst decision of 1999. Marquez's unanimous decision loss at the hands of current WBA 126 lb. champ, Chris John, took place in Indonesia, and was considered by many in the boxing community to be nothing more than a hometown verdict aided by marginal low blow penalties in Rounds 10 and 11. Similarly, the vast majority of boxing writers seated at ringside, members of the Filipino press included, scored the second Pacquiao fight in favor of Marquez – even CompuBox numbers suggest that the 'Three Blind Mice' who served as judges that night got it wrong.
Unlikely knockout victories at 135 lbs. over Juan 'Baby Bull' Diaz and lineal champion, Joel Casamayor, further established Marquez as a fighter capable of greatness at higher weights, but in calling out the retired Mayweather, did Juan Manuel perhaps bite off more than he could chew? The answer is a resounding “no!”, quite simply because truly great fighters look for the next big challenge, and in signing to face Mayweather at a catch weight of 144 lbs., Marquez is once again demonstrating a willingness to “push the envelope”, something past ring greats like Hearns, Duran, Benitez and Chavez were all noted for. Marquez is not expected to win this weekend, but to entertain the idea of a blow-out loss for the Mexican borders on lunacy. Mayweather, a counter-puncher extraordinaire, poses major stylistic problems for any fighter, and Marquez will be no exception. And this is what makes this fight so interesting. To be competitive with Floyd, Marquez will have to make adjustments almost every round, but to emerge victorious, he will have to take chances, and that plays into Mayweather's hands. When two natural counter-punchers meet, the aggressor usually turns out to be the fighter moving up in weight, and in this case, that's Marquez. And it says here that he will need a major trick or two hidden in his bag in order to push Floyd to the limit.
Prediction: A Mayweather victory is not hard to predict, but with the lengthy layoff introducing the ring rust factor and Marquez's propensity for assuming the role of counter-puncher coming into play, it's not a certainty that Floyd won't struggle over the first half of the fight. Marquez is highly-skilled and possesses the heart of a lion, so Mayweather will be in for a fight, but as the bout gets deeper into its latter stages, expect Floyd to find the range on his power punches just enough to push Marquez even further into defense mode. Oh, Marquez will have his moments in the fight, especially in the first six or seven rounds, but no other fighter since Mike McCallum makes round-to-round adjustments as well as Mayweather does – the same opportunities that were available against Barrera, Pacquiao, Diaz and Casamayor will be virtually non-existent against Floyd. The primary weapon that troubles Mayweather is the jab, and though Marquez employs a decent jab from time-to-time, it's not a weapon he typically hangs his hat on, and certainly isn't troublesome enough to present major obstacles to Floyd. Though it will take Mayweather several rounds to work his way into the fight and establish any sort of rhythm, Marquez is a “chess player”, and no one plays chess better than Floyd. In a fight a bit more entertaining than expected, it's Mayweather by UD, something like 8-4 in rounds.
Aftermath: Marquez, in “calling out” Mayweather, has to know that he playing with “house money”. A victory over Floyd would be quite shocking, quite frankly, while a semi-competitive showing could possibly enhance Marquez's box office and PPV appeal to the point where he'd become a major player in attracting big-money fights at 135 or possibly 140. The problem with that scenario is the fact that despite being loaded with talent and the potential to provide tons of fan-friendly match-ups, neither division really has the type of fighter with the broad-based appeal to provide Marquez with the sort of multi-million dollar payday he so richly deserves. The whole idea of this exercise with Mayweather is to “smoke out” Pacquiao, but that's akin to playing the Pittsburgh Steelers to get to the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers are good team, but...well, you get my point.
Many intriguing opponents are out there for Marquez, but like Mayweather and Pacquiao, he's earned the right to bypass the low-budget/high risk yet highly-anticipated “prove-it-to-me” bouts against guys like Humberto Soto, Joan Guzman or Timothy Bradly. Mayweather on the other hand, will most likely entertain the most lucrative offer available, as been his inclination for the past few years. It makes great business sense, but infuriates the average boxing fan, especially since a showdown with Paul 'The Punisher' Williams at 154 lbs. such an easy fight to make for obvious reasons. The irony lies in the fact that Pacquiao has never called Mayweather out, while Williams has publicly challenged Mayweather, Cotto, Mosley and every other notable talent from 147 to 160 lbs. Mayweather-Williams would evoke memories of Leonard-Hearns and would provide Floyd the opportunity to push his own envelope and prove that he's more than willing to face the sternest opposition available, just as Leonard did in the early 80s. Something tells me however, that after emerging victorious on Saturday night, Floyd will resume beating the drums for a 2010 face-off with Pacquiao, a disappointing prospect considering the fact that a “must see” match-up with Williams is just a call away.
Source: diamondboxing.com
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