Can Mayweather Draw A Crowd?

The unbeaten boxer's return to the ring is no bonanza. But his next fight could be.

For Floyd Mayweather and his handlers, the goals for his Sept. 19 comeback fight against Juan Manuel Marquez should be simple: make a few bucks and get out of there with your health intact. Oh, yeah--and score enough points to win.

Those are the necessary ingredients for Mayweather's real payday--a potential 2010 showdown against Manny Pacquiao that would be billed as the bout to determine the world's best pound-for-pound fighter. Pacquiao has generally held that distinction since knocking boxing's meal ticket, Oscar De La Hoya, into retirement last December. Pacquiao faces his own test this fall, taking on former junior welterweight champ Miguel Cotto on Nov. 14.

"It would be one of the great fights in history," says Mark Taffet, senior VP of Sports Operations at HBO, which is charging $49.95 a pop for this Saturday's fight, of a potential Pacquiao-Mayweather brawl.

For now, Mayweather (39-0; 25 knockouts) doesn't seem to be getting the kind of traction he anticipated for his return to the ring after an 18-month absence. That's despite an intriguing matchup against Marquez (50-4-1; 37 KO's), a top fighter from the boxing hotbed of Mexico who has shown few signs of slowing down at age 36.

"Our two biggest consumer segments are African-American and Latino," says Taffet. "This is America's No. 1 fighter vs. Mexico's No. 1 fighter, so you've got true mega-fight potential."

But the economy is tough, and boxing's biggest challenger for younger audiences, Mixed Martial Arts, is holding its popular UFC 13 bout in Dallas the same night. Tickets remain available at Las Vegas's MGM Grand Garden Arena, a sure sign that Mayweather-Marquez isn't shaping up to be quite as mega as Taffet hopes. Mayweather's 2007 bout with Oscar De La Hoya sold out in two hours, then drew 2.4 million pay-per-view buys. The fight will be available in 170 movie theaters in the U.S., a sign that the fight's promoters are acquiescing to the reality that some fans will only sign up for a cheaper alternative ($15) to the view from the living room sofa.

Using live gate sales as a gauge for overall interest, the fight figures to resemble the Pacquiao-Ricky Hatton matchup of last May (850,000 PPV buys) more than the any of the million-plus viewers that De La Hoya routinely pulled in. That would likely earn Mayweather, who scored $25 million for the De La Hoya bout, about $8 million this time around. Richard Schaefer, CEO of De La Hoya's management company Golden Boy Promotions, which is representing Marquez, claims that early tracking shows that PPV buys could break the million mark, but that in the end "Anyone's guess is as good as mine."

For HBO, that would mean two premium post-Oscar fights this year drawing solidly without hitting jackpot status. The chance for that comes next year, should Mayweather and Pacquiao square off. Better yet, there's a chance that fight could be held at Yankee Stadium, adding a dash of history and an extra level of interest. The likes of Rocky Marciano, Sugar Ray Robinson and Muhammad Ali traded blows at the old version of the stadium, in the days before big fights migrated to Vegas.

Sports marketing experts say staging a big bout there could hook casual fans, much like the NHL scored with its annual outdoor baseball stadium game on New Years Day. But unlike hockey, boxing still lacks a regular schedule to follow up a big event with. And the sport still suffers from a plethora of governing bodies that yield too many champions. "It makes a lot of sense, but without doing it on a regular basis, it's only going to do so much," says Patrick Rishe, who teaches sports business at Webster University in St. Louis.

Yankee officials, looking to add events to help pay for their $1.5 billion palace, have publicly expressed interest in adding boxing to a mix that already includes several scheduled college football games.

First, though, both Mayweather and Pacquiao have to win the fights in front of them. And that doesn't figure to be easy. Both opponents--Marquez and Cotto--are highly regarded fighters with legitimate chances to win. Just what boxing doesn't need, since neither has the charisma necessary to attract huge audiences. Mayweather and Pacquaio have more, but not enough for either to step up as the next De La Hoya--unless they're fighting each other. Beyond that, the cupboard is still pretty bare.

Source: forbes.com