Floyd Mayweather’s Next "Money" Move?

Now, that the Mayweather-Marquez fight is on hold due to Floyd’s rib injury and amidst rumblings that ticket sales were less than record setting is it reasonable to believe that Floyd’s bargaining power leading into a future negotiation with Manny Pacquiao will be diminished? I think the answer is “yes”. In previous statements, Floyd has always pointed to his record setting PPV buy rates in matches between common opponents as proof that HE’S the bigger draw between the two and as such deserves a higher percentage of the purse split. The fight with Juan Manuel Marquez could turn out to disprove that claim and may be clear cut evidence that Floyd alone does not have enough fan appeal to draw in paying customers. As it stands today, he can use the fact that he reached a higher plateau at the box office than Manny but not if he doesn’t reach a comparable plateau against Marquez.. That will render his arguments invalid. Some think it’s invalid now. It is true that his fights against Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton garnered more revenue than Manny’s but it’s also true that the real attraction in those fights wasn’t Mayweather. Perhaps Floyd’s antics raised the overall visibility of those fights but there’s little doubt that the majority of the paying customers were paying to see Oscar and Ricky. Not to mention, they were paying to see Oscar and Ricky win. Some have made the argument that prior to those two fights Floyd’s marketability was limited to hardcore fight fans and that his exposure to a larger general audience didn’t take place until the Arturo Gatti fight. In that fight, Arturo was the draw. In the end it was Floyd’s absolute mastery and dominance that became the story but he wasn’t the one that people tuned into see. Granted, afterwards he did emerge as a bigger star and it gave him the visibility he needed leading into the fight with De La Hoya. Before that fans were somewhat lukewarm to Floyd at the box office. Poor returns on the Marquez fight may remind people of that time and I’m sure if they don’t remember, Bob Arum will be there to jog their memory.

Currently, from a business perspective Floyd and his team are in a tough spot.

So, if you’re Floyd’s advisors what do you do now? Do you try to get out of the Marquez fight? I think if they could they would. With Manny very near to signing to fight with Miguel Cotto and the possibility that Floyd’s fight with Marquez will significantly diminish his bargaining power the question they must be asking themselves is “how do we get out of this fight?”! If he doesn’t he could lose Pacquiao all together because there is NO GUARANTEE that Manny will beat Cotto. In fact, in the minds of many boxing insiders Miguel Cotto is the worst opponent for Pacquiao because of his definite power and the redemptive stakes involved.

Upon considering all this some interesting scenarios begin to emerge when looking at Floyd’s possible future.

Scenario #1, if he moves forward with the Marquez fight and wins in his usual manner by decision as most expect but the box office returns are relatively poor then he can forget about getting a 50/50 split with Pacquiao! Frankly, he can forget about 55/45 too because Arum will demand and GET the original 60/40 split in Manny’s favor. At that point, Floyd will have no choice but to accept that. In my opinion, the only way for Floyd to avoid this fate would be by delivering SPECTACULAR knock out of JMM. Regardless, of the PPV returns he can then make the argument to THE PUBLIC that he utterly destroyed a fighter that Manny is perceived to have struggled with. It won’t matter so much that fewer people actually tuned in to see that fight when there are thousands of replays through every media outlet available along with Floyd himself LOUDLY banging the drum as we all know is his talent. A win in that fashion will also start up a new argument that will ultimately be decided by the Ring Magazine when they publish their new P4P rankings. Who’ll be #1? That ranking will go a long way in determining Floyd’s new bargaining power. You can bet that there will be many pundits who proclaim Floyd #1 and Manny #2. We may even be split down the middle. If that does happens then you can expect a long and tedious negotiation process for a PBF-MP fight. Toss in the bad blood between Arum and Mayweather and we may suffer through months of back and forth.

Scenario #2, if Manny moves forward and does fight Miguel Cotto and BEATS him then it doesn’t matter what Floyd does against Marquez because Manny at that point will have won 7 world titles in 7 different weight divisions. That historic event will put his struggles with Juan Manuel Marquez to bed for good and Floyd will be back to the original 60/40 deal. Take it or leave it. Manny could also then threaten to do business with “Sugar” Shane Mosley indicating to the public that “he” wants to clean up the division. After all it was Shane who took out the often avoided and generally perceived to be the #1 fighter in the division, the now disgraced Antonio Margarito. Manny at that point could even flirt with the idea of challenging the light hitting Cory Spinks at Jr middleweight for an 8th world title in as many weight divisions. (That’s a bit of a stretch but I wanted to put it out there any way. You never know how invincible he might be feeling after winning a 7th world title. Don’t underestimate a fighter’s ego!) The historic implications alone of such a match would do huge numbers. Bob Arum would have no problem making a fight like that a “must see” for even the casual sports fans. All this of course is bad business for Floyd. He could potentially be left out in the cold.

Scenario #3, Manny takes on Cotto and is BEATEN! Suddenly, Manny is no longer the #1 fighter in the world and his marketability outside of the Philippines is back to the pre-De La Hoya level. It will matter HOW Manny is beaten as well. If he loses by close decision then he may still be able to command a decent percentage in a fight with Floyd but if he is knocked out all bets are off! Manny could also find himself left out in the cold because at that point the only fight that would really make sense would be between Mayweather and Cotto. That scenario is also bad for Floyd because you can bet that he won’t be making any where near the amount of cash that he would have against Pacquiao regardless of the percentage split. Not to mention, that Miguel Cotto will gain a renewed confidence and credibility by beating Manny and could threaten to sign a Margarito rematch instead of a fight with Floyd and use that as his bargaining chip. By doing so he could potentially leave Floyd the odd man out or at least command a 50/50 split. Arum may even attempt to get a percentage split that favors Miguel.

Again, that would depend on how Cotto wins.

Scenario #4, Floyd finds a way to get out of his fight with Marquez and starts negotiations with Manny now. He can then negotiate based upon the higher revenue returns for his fights with Oscar and Ricky. In order to do that he would have to provide some kind of back room compensation to JMM and Golden Boy Promotions. Step aside deals are nothing new in professional boxing. In my opinion, that would seem to be the safest way to go and Floyd has always shown a safety first approach in the ring as well as at the negotiation table.

If they can’t opt out of that fight I have a couple of recommendations for Team Mayweather.

#1, Knock out Juan Manuel Marquez in SPECTACULAR fashion and #2, PRAY that Manny Pacquiao gets past Miguel Cotto in one piece!

Source: eastsideboxing.com